Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8d4…9b36 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$40
sports 25% −$24
politics 8% −$9
culture 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$7
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage140d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $496 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $273 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $495 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $406 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $701 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $440 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $212 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $340 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $244 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $228 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $468 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $203 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $256 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 11h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 15h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 28h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 36h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 37h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 38h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 40h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 42h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 44h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 46h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1446 history records