Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd8d5…8935
politics · 310 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$41,060 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59,188 · open +$10,034
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$204,884
Realized+$59,188
Unrealized+$10,034
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses112 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions295
Markets (closed)145 / 310
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,322
Trades / day285.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 295 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,151
7 days+$22,247
14 days+$59,188
30 days+$59,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 94¢ 99¢ $15,977 $16,847 +$870 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $9,845 $11,489 +$1,644 (+17%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 98¢ $8,524 $8,883 +$358 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $6,316 $6,496 +$180 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,373 $6,384 +$11 (+0%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $5,408 $5,499 +$91 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $4,797 $5,370 +$573 (+12%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,769 $4,879 +$110 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $4,580 $4,625 +$45 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $3,303 $3,380 +$77 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 84¢ $3,330 $3,340 +$10 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 95¢ $2,993 $2,975 −$18 (-1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $2,448 $2,590 +$142 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $2,370 $2,537 +$167 (+7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $2,096 $2,233 +$137 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,234 $2,232 −$2 (-0%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 70¢ 100¢ $1,557 $2,213 +$656 (+42%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,178 $2,196 +$18 (+1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $2,131 $2,170 +$39 (+2%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,138 $2,151 +$13 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,984 $1,998 +$14 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 36¢ 88¢ $795 $1,973 +$1,178 (+148%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,871 $1,970 +$99 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $2,100 $1,965 −$135 (-6%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,895 $1,880 −$15 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,487 −$23 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $269 +$121 +45%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $21 +$944 +4562%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +150%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $349 +$28 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $73 +$484 +664%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 13 $993 +$4 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $396 +$18 +4%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $756 +$44 +6%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1,558 +$42 +3%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 13 $396 +$16 +4%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 13 $135 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $278 −$278 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 13 $217 +$9 +4%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $290 +$10 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 13 $279 +$21 +8%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 13 $280 +$20 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 13 $581 +$19 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $1,117 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 13 $1,890 +$1,929 +102%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $2,256 +$44 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 13 $2,486 +$49 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $3,744 +$9 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $3,952 +$52 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $679 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $496 +$548 +111%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $989 +$11 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $389 −$177 -46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 12 $964 +$20 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $5,852 +$19 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,685 +$27 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $176 +$346 +197%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $1,591 −$14 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $934 −$3 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $385 +$132 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $364 +$48 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $232 −$153 -66%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $993 +$7 +1%
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2 Jun 11 $180 +$5 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $7,887 +$257 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $12,377 +$175 +1%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $2,346 +$46 +2%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $16,581 +$469 +3%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 11 $297 +$1 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,209 +$3,026 +250%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $998 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% +$16,632
world 30% +$6,880
other 20% +$7,951
tech 7% +$4,543
crypto 6% +$30,086
finance 2% +$58
economics 2% +$2,739
culture 2% +$29
sports 1% +$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump goes to space in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 16m
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2,811 19m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $74 30m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $357 33m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $6 37m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $145 40m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $348 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 94¢ $227 46m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $72 50m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $26 53m
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY No 58¢ $108 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 99¢ $157 1h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY No 58¢ $55 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 64¢ $88 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $130 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4,980 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $0 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $186 2h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $255 2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $13 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 52¢ $0 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 52¢ $0 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $376 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 52¢ $0 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 52¢ $1,484 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +36.8% +23.8% 81% 25% +0.2%
≤30d 145 +34.1% +21.4% 77% 30% +11.8%
≤90d 145 +34.1% +21.4% 77% 30% +11.8%
all 145 +34.1% +21.4% 77% 30% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover285.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.4% 30% +11.8%
10% +9.8% 24% +1.1%
15% ← realistic here -0.8% 19% -8.7%
20% -10.6% 15% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204,884.09 · official $204,886.76 (match) · 3500 history records