Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8d5…c676 world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$868 (-58%) realized −$850 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$802
other 12% −$84
finance 10% −$134
tech 1% −$4
politics 1% $0
sports 1% −$8
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-56.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.3% -4.8% 83% 83% -5.9%
≤30d 6 +5.3% -4.8% 83% 83% -5.9%
≤90d 41 -49.9% -54.7% 29% 24% -83.2%
all 43 -52.3% -56.8% 28% 23% -83.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.8% 23% -83.2%
10% -60.9% 16% -84.8%
15% -64.7% 14% -86.3%
20% -68.2% 9% -87.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$35 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$850
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)43 / 64
History coverage104d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 44¢ 43¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-78%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $100 −$50 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Apr 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 30 $25 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $220 −$220 -100%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? Apr 24 $5 +$5 +95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $236 −$236 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 24 $10 +$6 +58%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 20 $5 −$3 -62%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $11 −$1 -13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $10 +$7 +66%
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? Apr 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $8 +$24 +298%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) hit (LOW) $585 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 11 $65 −$61 -93%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 11 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $14 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $50 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 48d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 48d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 49d
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 49d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 49d
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $200 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $6 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 54d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $90 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $200 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.49 · official $126.49 (match) · 159 history records