Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8dc…79ec other 81 markets active 21h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate72%57W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$4
weather 12% $0
sports 3% −$4
world 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.0% -21.3% 86% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 24 -11.7% -20.1% 71% 25% -6.9%
≤90d 62 -19.4% -27.1% 73% 13% -9.4%
all 79 -19.9% -27.5% 72% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 13% -9.5%
10% -34.5% 10% -18.1%
15% -40.8% 9% -26.0%
20% -46.6% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses57 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage112d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 4? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +48%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jason Tatum win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 20 $6 +$4 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 8? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 6? May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 30 May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 06 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 27? Apr 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 28 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 21? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 22? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 15? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14? Apr 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Butler lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season Apr 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 8? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $62 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 14d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $6 15d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 16d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 20d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 66¢ $2 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $3 22d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 26d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 33d
Will Jason Tatum win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $6 34d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $2 35d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $2 36d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 37d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY Yes $1 39d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.99 · official $5.99 (match) · 140 history records