Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd8dc…e66a crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$828per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% −$15
crypto 0% +$3
other 0% +$2
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.6% -2.7% 100% 33% -2.9%
≤30d 7 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 29% -2.8%
≤90d 14 +5.5% -4.6% 93% 14% -4.3%
all 15 +5.1% -4.9% 87% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 13% -9.6%
10% -14.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -22.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -29.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage124d
Avg bet$828
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +6%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? May 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 21 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 22 $5 $0 +2%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 22 $7 $0 -3%
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch? Apr 22 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Apr 02 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $14,772 −$15 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $7 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 94¢ $13 25d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? BUY No 90¢ $8 25d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 94¢ $8 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 91¢ $7 54d
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? BUY No 97¢ $7 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? BUY No 89¢ $5 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $8 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $5 54d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 54d
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 91¢ $7 54d
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 75d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 75d
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $7 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $5 75d
Will Solana reach $120 in March? BUY No 94¢ $12 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? BUY No 95¢ $5 93d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $8 93d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $14,757 124d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $14,772 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.98 · official $22.98 (match) · 33 history records