Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8dd…0ad3 crypto 1267 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (174 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$174 (-4%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate52%655W / 612L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day174.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$128
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (174 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 868 -6.7% -15.5% 68% 26% -13.0%
≤30d 1267 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 23% -11.4%
≤90d 1267 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 23% -11.4%
all 1267 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 23% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover174.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 23% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 16% -19.9%
15% -25.1% 10% -27.7%
20% -32.4% 8% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses655 / 612
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1267 / 1267
History coverage13d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day174.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records