Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd8df…4613 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$38 (+11%) realized +$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$63
sports 8% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +30.1% +17.7% 75% 75% +16.5%
≤30d 4 +30.1% +17.7% 75% 75% +16.5%
≤90d 4 +30.1% +17.7% 75% 75% +16.5%
all 4 +30.1% +17.7% 75% 75% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 75% +16.5%
10% +6.4% 75% +5.3%
15% -3.9% 75% -4.9%
20% -13.3% 50% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$19 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$22 +107%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 +$23 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 8m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $113 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $118 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $43 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.41 · official $99.41 (match) · 12 history records