Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8e1…6ee4 politics 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%7W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$5
sports 30% −$8
other 16% −$6
culture 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -33.6% -40.0% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 7 -32.5% -38.9% 14% 0% -10.4%
all 71 -8.6% -17.3% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses7 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage277d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $63 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1 $0 -27%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $130 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 28 $65 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $64 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $1 $0 -12%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $129 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? Jan 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $66 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $1 $0 -17%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 20 $66 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $2 $0 -12%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $66 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 23 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 4d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY No 0¢ $1 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $63 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $63 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $64 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $64 34d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 41d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $62 107d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 107d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 109d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 109d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 110d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 100¢ $65 133d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 140d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 145d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $62 146d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $63 148d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 149d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 150d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 150d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $63 151d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 152d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 153d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $63 154d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $63 154d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.48 · official $60.48 (match) · 359 history records