Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8e3…fdaa crypto 610 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%547W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day120.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$301
7 days−$242
14 days−$319
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -5.7% -14.6% 88% 9% -19.4%
≤30d 625 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 11% -12.3%
≤90d 625 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 11% -12.3%
all 625 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 11% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 11% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 4% -20.7%
15% -28.5% 2% -28.4%
20% -35.5% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses547 / 78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)625 / 610
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day120.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 625 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records