Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D8 0xd8e4…53bb crypto 391 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,339 (-4%) realized −$1,380 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%269W / 119L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$306
14 days−$1,670
30 days−$1,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$1,562
sports 18% −$119
other 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -21.0% -28.5% 57% 57% -27.2%
≤30d 388 -2.5% -11.8% 69% 38% -13.6%
≤90d 388 -2.5% -11.8% 69% 38% -13.6%
all 388 -2.5% -11.8% 69% 38% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 38% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 20% -21.9%
15% -27.9% 18% -29.4%
20% -35.0% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$63 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$1,380
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses269 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions3
Markets (closed)388 / 391
History coverage25d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? No 64¢ 94¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 63¢ 84¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? No 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $75 on June 17? Jun 18 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 17? Jun 18 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? Jun 16 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? Jun 15 $51 +$26 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $51 +$13 +25%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 14? Jun 15 $51 +$20 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +59%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 12? Jun 13 $51 +$30 +58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $52 +$40 +77%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $51 +$11 +21%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$12 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$19 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $302 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $302 +$24 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $302 −$300 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $302 −$300 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $302 +$37 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $302 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$14 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $170 −$168 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $169 −$168 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $169 +$21 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $175 −$175 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$10 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $51 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $51 20h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $51 20h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $51 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $51 21h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $51 39h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 64¢ $51 2d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 56¢ $52 2d
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $51 2d
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $51 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $51 2d
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $51 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 63¢ $51 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $51 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $51 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $51 5d
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $51 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $51 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $52 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $81 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $61 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.50 · official $190.50 (match) · 1052 history records