Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd8e7…9fae other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$172 (+18%) realized +$165 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$83
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$166
sports 36% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +21.7% +10.1% 50% 50% +5.3%
≤30d 4 +27.5% +15.4% 75% 75% +10.8%
≤90d 4 +27.5% +15.4% 75% 75% +10.8%
all 4 +27.5% +15.4% 75% 75% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 75% +10.8%
10% +4.3% 75% +0.2%
15% -5.7% 50% -9.5%
20% -15.0% 0% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$13 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.66 per $1 lost it wins $12.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage9d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $280 $287 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $304 −$13 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$97 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $142 +$62 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $284 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $290 3h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $304 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $204 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $142 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.24 · official $287.24 (match) · 9 history records