Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd8ea…1eb2 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$155 (+12%) realized +$158 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$156
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$3
sports 38% +$145
tech 4% $0
world 3% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -8.7%
≤90d 9 +8.5% -1.9% 89% 22% +7.7%
all 14 +6.1% -4.0% 93% 14% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 14% +6.0%
10% -13.2% 14% -4.1%
15% -21.6% 14% -13.4%
20% -29.3% 14% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$153 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage165d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $445 $441 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $189 +$156 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $156 −$153 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 28 $158 +$142 +90%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 27 $11 $0 +3%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Apr 27 $21 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 27 $196 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of January? Feb 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $18 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $31 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.45 · official $441.45 (match) · 28 history records