Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8ec…40ed crypto 1350 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%895W / 453L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$322
7 days+$408
14 days+$408
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$1,190
other 12% +$732
sports 3% +$154
weather 1% −$97
finance 0% +$6
world 0% +$2
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 +6.1% -4.0% 86% 66% -5.2%
≤30d 677 +0.9% -8.7% 82% 38% -8.0%
≤90d 687 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 38% -8.0%
all 1348 -3.9% -13.1% 66% 42% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% -9.8%
10% -21.4% 30% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 22% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 17% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses895 / 453
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1348 / 1350
History coverage159d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1348 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $65 +$9 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$4 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$4 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$22 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $287 −$285 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$7 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$14 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$32 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $288 +$56 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$2 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$16 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $65 +$6 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$2 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $65 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $298 +$15 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $65 +$7 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $291 +$130 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $65 +$4 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$15 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $296 +$9 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $299 +$93 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$7 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$8 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$7 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $66 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $291 +$125 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $298 +$53 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $291 −$291 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $65 +$6 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$4 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $65 +$5 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $288 +$46 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $66 +$10 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $13 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $65 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $66 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $287 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $66 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $75 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $66 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $13 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $288 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $65 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $13 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $73 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $313 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $13 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $23 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $65 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $288 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $65 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3041 history records