Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8f0…8c72 crypto 1254 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$576 (-4%) realized −$576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%561W / 799L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$466
14 days−$181
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -74.7% -77.1% 13% 13% -53.1%
≤30d 456 -31.9% -38.4% 33% 33% -9.2%
≤90d 1360 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 39% -10.9%
all 1360 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 39% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 38% -19.4%
15% -37.2% 38% -27.2%
20% -43.3% 37% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses561 / 799
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1360 / 1254
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 49¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $0.99 (match) · 3500 history records