Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8f2…c771 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$3
world 30% −$6
crypto 10% $0
sports 8% +$7
finance 7% +$2
politics 7% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -11.3%
all 29 +1.6% -8.1% 48% 7% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 7% -8.2%
10% -16.9% 7% -17.0%
15% -24.9% 7% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage484d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $41 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $7 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $36 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $46 −$6 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $16 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $15 $0 -0%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 20 $13 +$6 +43%
UMBC vs. UMass Lowell Mar 03 $6 +$6 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 9h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $41 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $41 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $7 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $7 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $41 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $41 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $40 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $40 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $39 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $6 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $6 25d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $16 356d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $2 356d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 96¢ $2 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.27 · official $37.27 (match) · 81 history records