Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd8f6…15fb sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$194 (+0%) realized +$316 · open −$122
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%41W / 50L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$829per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$444est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6,751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$183
14 days+$450
30 days+$6,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$206
other 32% +$346
world 1% −$442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% +3.3%
≤30d 10 +21.5% +9.9% 40% 40% +103.7%
≤90d 33 -13.8% -22.0% 33% 33% -25.8%
all 91 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 42% -9.2%
10% -28.8% 37% -17.9%
15% -35.7% 33% -25.8%
20% -42.0% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$940) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$673 vs −$547 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$6,751
Realized+$316
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses41 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$444
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage223d
Avg bet$829
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2,245 $2,510 +$265 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,943 $2,222 +$279 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2,112 $1,430 −$681 (-32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $574 $589 +$15 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $234 +$180 +77%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $506 +$547 +108%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $552 −$544 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$8 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $297 −$294 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $303 −$6 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $609 +$667 +110%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $414 −$410 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1,868 +$6,167 +330%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 17 $380 −$369 -97%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 17 $3,000 −$2,596 -86%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 07 $49 +$50 +103%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 06 $455 −$276 -61%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 06 $1,000 +$391 +39%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 06 $949 +$1,812 +191%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 03 $206 −$200 -97%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $129 −$125 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Apr 20 $899 −$899 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 19 $1,607 −$1,607 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $943 −$941 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 19 $151 +$359 +238%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Apr 19 $559 +$638 +114%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Apr 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 18 $697 +$771 +111%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Apr 18 $940 −$940 -100%
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets Apr 18 $273 −$273 -100%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Apr 18 $4,824 −$4,824 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers Apr 18 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 Apr 18 $492 −$492 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Apr 18 $1,194 +$1,303 +109%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 14 $803 +$138 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 26 $324 −$296 -91%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 26 $170 −$170 -100%
Oilers vs. Wild Dec 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 26 $162 −$150 -92%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Dec 26 $900 −$900 -100%
Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5 Dec 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 26 $292 −$292 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Dec 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 26 $900 +$674 +75%
Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Dec 26 $532 +$455 +86%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 25 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-22? Dec 25 $220 −$220 -100%
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Dec 25 $1,504 +$373 +25%
Memphis vs. North Carolina State Dec 25 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $100 +$32 +32%
Sabres vs. Senators Dec 24 $300 +$397 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $253 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $92 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $322 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 55¢ $234 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $231 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $552 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $52 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $506 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 31¢ $94 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $94 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $190 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $190 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $107 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $106 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $407 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $565 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $249 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $1,277 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $6 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $601 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $414 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $535 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,751.11 · official $6,751.11 (match) · 415 history records