Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd8f8…0f11
weather · 212 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5,796 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,710 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$5,710
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses40 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$372
Open positions12
Markets (closed)244 / 212
History coverage52d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 12 History 244 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,907
7 days−$1,894
14 days−$1,898
30 days−$5,581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+17%)
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Sri Lanka 20¢ 50¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+152%)
Will Jack Della Maddalena be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? No 55¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+74%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Song Yadong next? Yes 31¢ 5¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-84%)
Will Brice Turang lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season? No 9¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+996%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+67%)
Will Song Yadong be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-89%)
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Afghanistan 90¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? No 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Rob Font next? Yes 43¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? No 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? No 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 30? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 −$6 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $113 −$78 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +40%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 10 $46 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$5,060
weather 25% −$8,719
other 2% −$255
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -85.5% -86.9% 5% 5% -82.4%
≤30d 115 -54.2% -58.5% 16% 15% -77.6%
≤90d 244 -50.1% -54.8% 16% 11% -19.9%
all 244 -50.1% -54.8% 16% 11% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.8% 11% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -59.1% 9% -27.6%
15% -63.1% 9% -34.6%
20% -66.7% 8% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.48 · official $39.07 (match) · 3500 history records