Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8fa…ebfa other 102 markets active 1d ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%90W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$3
tech 26% +$2
crypto 13% +$1
economics 12% −$1
world 7% $0
politics 7% +$1
culture 5% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 34 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 95 -0.1% -9.7% 95% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses90 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)95 / 102
History coverage219d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 95¢ 62¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +7%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Mar 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $2 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times at t Mar 25 $4 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Februa Feb 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Feb 19 $4 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 19 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? Feb 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 01 $3 $0 +0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 30h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $2 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $2 14d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $2 14d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 16d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $2 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 31d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $2 35d
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 37d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 42d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 45d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 100¢ $2 49d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 100¢ $2 49d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $2 53d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 56d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $2 59d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 60d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $3 63d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April BUY No 99¢ $1 65d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $2 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $2 69d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $2 71d
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 72d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $3 74d
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 76d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $2 78d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 80d
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.51 · official $12.51 (match) · 232 history records