Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8fb…214b crypto 1523 markets active 6d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate69%1045W / 477L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$63
14 days−$61
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$4
sports 5% −$106
other 2% −$8
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -5.8% -14.8% 79% 54% -14.4%
≤30d 935 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 62% -9.9%
≤90d 1522 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 49% -10.6%
all 1522 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 49% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 49% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 16% -19.1%
15% -27.7% 5% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1045 / 477
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1522 / 1523
History coverage62d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1522 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -23%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $15 +$53 +346%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $12 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 10¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 13¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 38¢ $8 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 43¢ $7 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 5d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 100¢ $68 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3361 history records