Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd8fd…1527 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$267 (+9%) realized +$256 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +152% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +128% what you keep after slip
Net edge+128%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days+$394
14 days+$394
30 days+$394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$398
world 40% −$61
sports 3% +$7
crypto 3% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+127.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +251.8% +218.3% 67% 67% +23.8%
≤30d 9 +251.8% +218.3% 67% 67% +23.8%
≤90d 9 +251.8% +218.3% 67% 67% +23.8%
all 14 +151.5% +127.6% 57% 50% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +127.6% 50% -1.0%
10% +105.8% 43% -10.5%
15% +85.9% 43% -19.1%
20% +67.7% 29% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +152% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +296% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$57 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized+$256
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage372d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $150 $195 +$45 (+30%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 64¢ $150 $118 −$32 (-22%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 +$48 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 −$18 -35%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $102 −$6 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $253 −$88 -35%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $199 +$278 +140%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 27 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 23 $230 −$147 -64%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $541 +$58 +11%
US military action against Iran before August? Jun 19 $345 +$28 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jun 17 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $248 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $33 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $96 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 39¢ $165 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $199 2d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? BUY Yes 39¢ $83 332d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? SELL Yes 1¢ $83 366d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $230 367d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 100¢ $230 367d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 100¢ $230 367d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL No 0¢ $36 367d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY No 0¢ $16 367d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 75¢ $32 367d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 72¢ $72 367d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 70¢ $105 367d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 62¢ $148 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.40 · official $510.95 (match) · 49 history records