trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -1.6% | -10.9% | 67% | 33% | -23.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +9.5% | -0.9% | 88% | 62% | -5.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 70% | 50% | -6.7% |
| all | 13 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 54% | 38% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.7% | 38% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -36.5% | 15% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -42.6% | 8% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -48.2% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Jun 28 | $595 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | Jun 26 | $447 | +$149 | +33% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $1,318 | −$508 | -38% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $848 | +$106 | +12% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $832 | +$17 | +2% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1,461 | +$189 | +13% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $1,132 | +$149 | +13% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 07 | $450 | +$180 | +40% |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? | Apr 16 | $4 | −$3 | -97% |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? | Apr 16 | $61 | −$58 | -94% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 19 | $425 | −$243 | -57% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 06 | $48 | −$7 | -15% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Nov 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |