Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd904…6d35 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$3
crypto 27% +$3
sports 18% +$2
politics 9% +$1
economics 9% +$1
tech 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage97d
Avg bet$535
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $539 +$2 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $539 +$1 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,00 Jun 17 $537 +$1 +0%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.8%? May 15 $537 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4? May 07 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 20? Apr 21 $537 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $150? Apr 11 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 7? Apr 09 $534 +$2 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of March? Apr 01 $533 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 22? Mar 23 $533 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 19 $532 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 100¢ $539 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 100¢ $539 2d
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,00 BUY No 100¢ $537 35d
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.8%? BUY No 100¢ $537 41d
Will MrBeast's video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4? BUY No 100¢ $530 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $537 65d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $150? BUY Yes 100¢ $537 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $534 79d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $533 90d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $533 95d
76ers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $532 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.62 · official $540.62 (match) · 21 history records