Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd909…f7ec crypto 779 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,709 (-22%) realized −$8,709 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%307W / 472L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,442
7 days−$3,279
14 days−$3,279
30 days−$3,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$3,096
politics 16% −$5,861
world 4% −$129
sports 1% +$54
other 0% −$83
tech 0% −$109
weather 0% −$4
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -45.3% -50.5% 29% 22% -52.6%
≤30d 210 -45.3% -50.5% 29% 22% -52.6%
≤90d 651 -34.5% -40.8% 29% 26% -53.4%
all 779 -14.7% -22.8% 39% 35% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 35% -30.9%
10% -30.2% 29% -37.5%
15% -37.0% 24% -43.5%
20% -43.1% 19% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$39 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,709
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses307 / 472
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)779 / 779
History coverage135d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 779 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$13 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$15 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3371 history records