Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd914…6e25 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized +$309 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day122.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$309
7 days+$309
14 days+$309
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$250
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +4.1% -5.8% 64% 64% +1.2%
≤30d 44 +4.1% -5.8% 64% 64% +1.2%
≤90d 44 +4.1% -5.8% 64% 64% +1.2%
all 44 +4.1% -5.8% 64% 64% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 64% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 50% -8.5%
15% -23.1% 39% -17.3%
20% -30.6% 27% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$61 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$309
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day122.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 51¢ 4¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $174 +$288 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $275 −$260 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $244 +$227 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $108 −$102 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$31 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $145 +$229 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $119 +$86 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $180 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$126 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$58 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $174 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $41 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $47 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $37 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $470 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $37 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $13 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 45m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $101 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.27 · official $69.89 · 142 history records