Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D9 0xd914…9e62 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%39W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$5
crypto 12% −$1
tech 3% +$1
sports 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 -0.0% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses39 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage536d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? Feb 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $14 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 03 $39 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 27 $5,467 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 05 $36 +$2 +4%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? Feb 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 25 $26 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 24 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $58 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $40 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $59 122d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $6 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $21 149d
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $53 150d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 181d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $54 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $35 211d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 211d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 240d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 240d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $39 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $46 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $20 301d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $44 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY No 100¢ $56 334d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.06 · official $72.06 (match) · 112 history records