Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd914…0d9a sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16,352 (-7%) realized −$11,686 · open −$5,071
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,786per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1,320est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$51,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,782
7 days+$1,679
14 days+$5,027
30 days+$1,712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2,927
sports 33% −$11,521
finance 7% −$417
crypto 5% −$6,533
other 5% −$1,447
politics 0% +$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 38% -4.2%
≤30d 15 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 33% -7.2%
≤90d 45 +31.0% +18.5% 56% 44% -17.7%
all 49 +29.0% +16.8% 55% 45% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.8% 45% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here +5.6% 37% -24.5%
15% -4.6% 27% -31.8%
20% -14.0% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,995) neutral
Persistence
early +66% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,618 vs −$2,517 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$51,033
Realized−$11,686
Unrealized−$5,071
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,320
Open positions10
Markets (closed)49 / 59
History coverage131d
Avg bet$3,786
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 97¢ $37,470 $45,547 +$8,077 (+22%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 28¢ $4,000 $1,528 −$2,472 (-62%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,350 $1,386 +$36 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 84¢ $1,014 $1,071 +$56 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 36¢ $11,000 $809 −$10,191 (-93%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No $444 $292 −$152 (-34%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $136 +$11 (+9%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 14¢ $500 $80 −$420 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $380 −$125 -33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,287 +$163 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9,761 +$16,843 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $15,710 −$15,566 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $613 −$93 -15%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $511 +$473 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $167 +$83 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $9,437 +$2,284 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $5,678 +$1,190 +21%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $122 −$122 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $10,358 −$1,293 -12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $12,005 −$2,138 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 16 $2,044 +$116 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $2,822 +$1,075 +38%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $603 +$169 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $14,699 −$14,104 -96%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $349 +$101 +29%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $11,566 +$3,176 +28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,520 −$1,505 -99%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $208 +$194 +93%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $172 −$87 -51%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,733 +$585 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $4,712 +$344 +7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1,876 +$166 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $2,248 +$415 +18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April? Apr 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $2,008 +$1,196 +60%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $1,058 +$235 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $19,005 +$7,502 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $16 +$1,478 +8954%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 07 $4,832 −$4,683 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 04 $6,800 −$6,800 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 02 $2,564 −$2,471 -96%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Mar 29 $2,179 +$871 +40%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 28 $1,814 +$353 +20%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $1,700 +$141 +8%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 27 $1,200 +$979 +82%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 women's singles tournament at the Mi Mar 26 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 24 $182 −$181 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 19 $1,188 +$792 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 05 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8? Mar 05 $1,337 +$890 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 03 $136 −$2 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $2,995 +$1,879 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $3 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $4 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $4 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $55 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $300 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $40 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $4 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $4 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 82¢ $410 15m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $128 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $102 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 12¢ $103 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 20¢ $241 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $1,007 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $277 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $444 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $10,000 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,400 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $500 14h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2,450 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $23 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5,866 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $9,485 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $57 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $398 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $983 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,032.56 · official $51,033.16 (match) · 249 history records