Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd91a…211c sports 937 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,421 (-11%) realized −$25,300 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%385W / 551L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$2,998est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$14
14 days−$492
30 days−$1,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$25,028
other 2% −$2,235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 48% -10.2%
≤30d 111 -3.6% -12.8% 43% 42% -23.0%
≤90d 579 -12.0% -20.3% 40% 37% -24.3%
all 936 -9.1% -17.7% 41% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -19.8%
10% -25.6% 36% -27.5%
15% -32.8% 33% -34.5%
20% -39.4% 31% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$237 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$25,300
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses385 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$2,998
Open positions1
Markets (closed)936 / 937
History coverage197d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 936 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Over 46¢ 6¢ $137 $16 −$121 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $128 −$128 -100%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $130 +$194 +149%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $141 +$203 +144%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $141 +$29 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $141 −$141 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $136 −$136 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $43 +$69 +160%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $45 +$50 +111%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 +$54 +120%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$24 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $55 +$23 +41%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $32 +$22 +68%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $73 +$144 +197%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $44 +$45 +103%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $44 +$84 +193%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $44 +$19 +44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $44 +$36 +81%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 +$51 +543%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $90 −$16 -18%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $60 +$31 +51%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $56 −$46 -83%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $56 +$23 +41%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $110 +$70 +64%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $125 −$125 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $112 +$56 +50%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $107 −$107 -100%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $122 −$122 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $87 +$50 +58%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $125 +$131 +105%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $126 +$186 +148%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $110 +$16 +15%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $140 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $128 2h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $325 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 81¢ $2 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 81¢ $342 6h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $130 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $170 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $141 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $138 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 33¢ $141 9h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $74 13h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $40 13h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $28 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $136 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $59 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $52 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $40 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 61¢ $72 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $40 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 76¢ $44 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 88¢ $50 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 38¢ $45 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 0¢ $0 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 28¢ $45 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $56 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 66¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.43 · official $16.43 (match) · 2697 history records