Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd91b…2a8e other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+5%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$5
sports 43% +$12
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +3.7%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +3.7%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +3.7%
all 14 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 50% +3.7%
10% -18.0% 50% -6.2%
15% -25.9% 50% -15.3%
20% -33.2% 50% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 62¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +121%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +82%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.34 · official $12.34 (match) · 28 history records