Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd91c…e067 crypto 510 markets active 2h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11,423 (-1%) realized −$11,424 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%487W / 21L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,571per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$36
14 days+$69
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$11,130
other 24% +$1,074
world 2% +$169
sports 2% −$1,611
finance 1% +$15
tech 0% +$13
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 118 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 260 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -10.0%
all 508 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -10.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,875) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$977 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$1,833
Realized−$11,424
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses487 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)508 / 510
History coverage209d
Avg bet$1,571
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,425 $1,426 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $407 $407 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $1,830 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? Jun 23 $884 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 23? Jun 23 $851 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 23? Jun 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,827 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 22? Jun 23 $1,818 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1,817 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1,815 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,813 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 20? Jun 21 $115 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 20? Jun 21 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 20? Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $1,759 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $657 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,803 +$5 +0%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $1,801 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1,799 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Jun 17 $165 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,633 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,606 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,794 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,733 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $60 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1,731 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,729 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,722 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,719 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,777 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $1,597 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 12? Jun 13 $178 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on June 12? Jun 12 $144 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on June 12? Jun 12 $329 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,734 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,269 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,767 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,765 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,316 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $447 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $446 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,315 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $446 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,425 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $407 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,830 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $851 12h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $94 12h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $884 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,827 26h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,818 37h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,817 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,815 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,813 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $126 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,759 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $657 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,094 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,803 5d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,121 6d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $680 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,799 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,633 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $165 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $80 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,833.31 · official $1,833.31 (match) · 2132 history records