Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd91d…3b21 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 58% -5.5%
≤30d 26 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 58% -5.5%
≤90d 26 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 58% -5.5%
all 26 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 58% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 58% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 58% -14.6%
15% -28.7% 54% -22.8%
20% -35.7% 38% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $63 +$105 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $84 −$26 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $82 +$42 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$39 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$41 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $164 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $68 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $41 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $83 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $3.99 · 80 history records