Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd91f…59dd sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,374 (+8%) realized +$3,961 · open −$587
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,972per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$13,187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$1,678
sports 35% +$4,809
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 43% +1.8%
≤30d 7 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 43% +1.8%
≤90d 7 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 43% +1.8%
all 7 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 43% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.0% 43% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here +5.8% 43% -7.9%
15% -4.4% 14% -16.8%
20% -13.8% 14% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,747 vs −$2,508 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$13,187
Realized+$3,961
Unrealized−$587
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3,972
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 84¢ 84¢ $4,570 $4,597 +$27 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 40¢ $4,310 $3,823 −$487 (-11%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 44¢ $2,636 $2,550 −$86 (-3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 80¢ $2,259 $2,217 −$42 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15,167 +$483 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,736 +$514 +30%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $2,078 +$7,092 +341%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2,209 −$2,174 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,845 +$505 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $2,878 −$2,842 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,860 +$140 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 84¢ $4,592 18m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $893 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $893 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $893 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $761 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,767 13h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2,272 13h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,853 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $1,736 29h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $8,163 34h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $7,004 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2,209 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 58¢ $2,878 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1,845 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $295 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $295 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $295 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $295 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $295 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $295 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $308 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $3,860 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,187.14 · official $13,187.14 (match) · 27 history records