Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd925…f36f
sports · 190 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,555 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,781 · open +$336
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,096
Realized−$2,781
Unrealized+$336
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses113 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$560
Open positions6
Markets (closed)184 / 190
History coverage558d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 6 History 184 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$532
7 days−$1,065
14 days+$782
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $940 $935 −$5 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $920 $905 −$15 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 51¢ 100¢ $258 $505 +$247 (+96%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 46¢ 56¢ $360 $434 +$74 (+21%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $153 $173 +$20 (+13%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 60¢ $129 $144 +$15 (+12%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 6¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 67¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 38¢ 0¢ $362 $0 −$362 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Team Secret Whales 72¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 44¢ 0¢ $267 $0 −$267 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 57¢ 0¢ $603 $0 −$603 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 58¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Team WE 28¢ 0¢ $526 $0 −$526 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BetBoom Team 40¢ 0¢ $244 $0 −$244 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12? No 98¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 27¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 24¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 34¢ 0¢ $869 $0 −$869 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 37¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner GAM Esports 55¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 54¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner TYLOO 29¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $817 +$648 +79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $645 +$15 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $249 +$232 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $268 −$267 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $248 −$243 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $601 +$357 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $991 −$975 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $189 −$180 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $960 +$474 +49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $173 −$172 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $146 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$168 +206%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $538 −$526 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $887 −$869 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $610 −$603 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $386 −$386 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $504 +$49 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $998 +$1,966 +197%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $247 +$161 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $284 −$275 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $248 +$57 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $127 −$127 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $355 +$88 +25%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,017 +$53 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $249 −$157 -63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $938 −$656 -70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$31 -76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $171 −$168 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $135 −$88 -65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $249 +$89 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $246 +$285 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $166 +$175 +105%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $223 +$58 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,008 +$440 +44%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $199 +$151 +76%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $248 −$244 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $248 −$111 -45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $249 −$246 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $171 +$179 +105%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $248 −$223 -90%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $178 −$128 -72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $72 −$45 -62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $249 +$124 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $369 −$86 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$263
other 16% −$235
weather 8% −$130
world 7% −$432
crypto 5% −$1,792
politics 5% +$390
tech 1% +$37
finance 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $117 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $249 38m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $258 55m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $254 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $217 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $229 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $229 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $190 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $32 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 83¢ $245 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -21.9% -29.4% 44% 38% -11.6%
≤30d 90 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 48% -6.6%
≤90d 159 -1.6% -11.0% 60% 29% -11.6%
all 184 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 31% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 31% -12.5%
10% -18.4% 28% -20.9%
15% -26.3% 24% -28.5%
20% -33.5% 20% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,096.10 · official $3,096.10 (match) · 1326 history records