Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd927…4af0 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$27 (-6%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$116
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$151
other 46% −$39
crypto 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.1% -12.4% 37% 37% +16.5%
≤30d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 39% +11.0%
≤90d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 39% +11.0%
all 36 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 39% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 39% +11.0%
10% -23.8% 39% +0.4%
15% -31.1% 33% -9.3%
20% -37.9% 28% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage13d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $1 +$4 +413%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $197 +$138 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $12 −$12 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $2 +$6 +307%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $12 −$3 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$3 -37%
Daichi Kamada: 1+ goals Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4 −$3 -98%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$4 -40%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 +$7 +180%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $4 +$6 +158%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$35 +172%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $9 +$13 +138%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 +$8 +49%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $9 +$6 +73%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$10 +180%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -82%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$12 +58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $336 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $197 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 14h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 14h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $3 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 29h
Daichi Kamada: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $3 29h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $4 29h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $9 29h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $2 33h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $2 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 33h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 33h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $1 33h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $3 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 33h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.73 · official $3.80 (match) · 68 history records