Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd928…8b5e crypto 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate45%166W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$13
sports 13% −$12
other 13% −$8
finance 4% +$1
tech 1% −$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 21% 7% -9.8%
≤30d 54 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 152 -2.1% -11.4% 30% 4% -9.8%
all 372 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 11% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 5% -18.5%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses166 / 206
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)372 / 378
History coverage403d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 17 $90 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -70%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +16%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 29 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 27 $130 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1 $0 -11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $90 33m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 89¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $1 28h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 28h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $90 30h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $100 30h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $72 4d
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $73 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $3 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $3 8d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $2 8d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.94 · official $7.94 (match) · 936 history records