Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd928…5f48 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized −$575 · open +$577
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$555
crypto 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.8% -15.6% 50% 50% -13.9%
≤30d 17 -18.1% -25.9% 35% 35% -20.6%
≤90d 17 -18.1% -25.9% 35% 35% -20.6%
all 17 -18.1% -25.9% 35% 35% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 35% -20.6%
10% -33.0% 35% -28.2%
15% -39.4% 35% -35.1%
20% -45.4% 29% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$637
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$577
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $5 $408 +$403 (+8400%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 5¢ 70¢ $15 $189 +$174 (+1192%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +163%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 32h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.40 · official $637.40 (match) · 36 history records