Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D9 0xd928…7b59 crypto 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-2%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%75W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$170
crypto 35% +$81
other 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 130 +1.5% -8.1% 58% 55% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 55% -11.1%
10% -16.9% 45% -19.6%
15% -25.0% 32% -27.4%
20% -32.3% 23% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses75 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage224d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $57 +$32 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $60 −$43 -71%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $485 −$485 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $100 +$22 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Mar 19 $200 +$13 +6%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $250 +$41 +17%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $20 −$14 -69%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 17 $200 +$82 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 17 $200 +$30 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $227 −$2 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $130 +$43 +33%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $419 +$168 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 15 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 15 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 14 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 12 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 12 $5 +$18 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 12 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$13 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $20 26h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $89 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $57 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 92d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B SELL LYON 3¢ $17 92d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY LYON 5¢ $10 92d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY LYON 14¢ $50 92d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 63¢ $85 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 55¢ $50 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 82¢ $400 93d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $122 93d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $100 94d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $213 94d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 94¢ $200 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 100¢ $291 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 76¢ $50 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 89¢ $100 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 88¢ $100 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 100¢ $112 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 89¢ $100 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Secret Whales 4¢ $6 94d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Secret Whales 14¢ $20 94d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 30¢ $50 94d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $282 95d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $100 95d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $100 95d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $230 96d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 87¢ $200 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.63 · official $49.63 (match) · 371 history records