Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd92a…7a78 crypto 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+7%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%152W / 76L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 67% -3.7%
≤30d 228 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 67% -3.9%
≤90d 228 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 67% -3.9%
all 228 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 67% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 67% -3.9%
10% -14.8% 67% -13.1%
15% -23.1% 67% -21.5%
20% -30.6% 65% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses152 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 483 history records