Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd92b…1b1b other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$1,287 (-3%) realized −$1,106 · open −$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +659% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +521% what you keep after slip
Net edge+521%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,654per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$8,119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$4,556
sports 21% −$648
crypto 10% +$3,479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+586.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +991.2% +887.3% 50% 50% -25.4%
≤30d 3 +658.7% +586.4% 33% 33% -22.5%
≤90d 3 +658.7% +586.4% 33% 33% -22.5%
all 3 +658.7% +586.4% 33% 33% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +586.4% 33% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here +520.7% 33% -30.0%
15% +460.7% 33% -36.7%
20% +405.8% 33% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +659% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,479 vs −$2,512 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$8,119
Realized−$1,106
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage21d
Avg bet$9,654
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $5,000 $4,743 −$257 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $3,300 $3,376 +$76 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,983 +$3,479 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24,943 −$4,375 -18%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9,961 −$648 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,335 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $5,048 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,158 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,223 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $177 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $900 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,105 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,121 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,983 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $20,568 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $24,943 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 51¢ $9,313 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $9,961 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,118.92 · official $8,118.80 (match) · 27 history records