Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd92b…57ca sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$523 (-37%) realized −$521 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$427
other 27% −$107
crypto 12% +$6
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +67.4% +51.5% 100% 100% +51.5%
≤90d 8 -19.8% -27.4% 62% 38% -19.5%
all 11 -32.5% -38.9% 55% 27% -51.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 27% -51.0%
10% -44.7% 18% -55.7%
15% -50.1% 18% -59.9%
20% -55.0% 9% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$135 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$521
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage234d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $273 $271 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $119 +$81 +67%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $96 +$44 +46%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 18 $82 +$18 +21%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 12 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $77 −$76 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 09 $115 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 05 $54 +$2 +4%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $109 −$106 -97%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Dec 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.38 · official $271.38 (match) · 29 history records