Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd92f…a832 crypto 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,981 (-20%) realized −$1,951 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%83W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,205
7 days−$1,319
14 days−$1,840
30 days−$1,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,740
other 10% −$704
economics 1% −$125
weather 1% −$71
tech 1% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -18.5% -26.2% 41% 39% -28.8%
≤30d 218 -20.8% -28.4% 38% 36% -29.6%
≤90d 218 -20.8% -28.4% 38% 36% -29.6%
all 225 -23.0% -30.3% 37% 35% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 35% -35.4%
10% -37.0% 34% -41.5%
15% -43.1% 31% -47.2%
20% -48.6% 28% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$38 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,951
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses83 / 142
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage189d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 29¢ 12¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$66 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $178 −$170 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$25 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$38 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $56 +$24 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$107 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $28 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $113 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $245 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $42 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $156 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $104 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.83 · official $90.52 · 480 history records