Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd930…0eaa crypto 1237 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$342 (-0%) realized −$336 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%1185W / 36L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$74
14 days+$85
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$710
other 3% +$37
weather 1% +$21
world 0% +$1
sports 0% +$11
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 1% -8.7%
≤30d 300 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1078 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 4% -9.9%
all 1221 +1.1% -8.6% 97% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 4% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$51 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$592
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1185 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1221 / 1237
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$207
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 20? No 100¢ 96¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 93¢ 86¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 95¢ 93¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 17? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 17? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 17? Jun 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 June 15-21? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 18? Jun 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 15? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 15? Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 8-14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 14? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $439 +$61 +14%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? Jun 14 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Solana reach $110 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $51 12h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $230 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $200 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $63 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 13h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $55 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $75 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $54 21h
Will Solana reach $110 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $55 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $591.57 · official $592.18 (match) · 3500 history records