Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd932…5a74 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% $0
politics 9% $0
other 7% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -4.7% -13.8% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage565d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Oct 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jul 11 $0 $0 -17%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $0 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 07 $1 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 50d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 50d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 77d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $8 77d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $9 91d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $9 91d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $9 111d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $9 111d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $7 141d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $7 141d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $10 173d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $10 173d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 202d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 202d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $10 230d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $10 230d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 258d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 259d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 304d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 304d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 304d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 338d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 338d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 338d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 371d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 371d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records