Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd933…4e0a sports 762 markets active 14h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+2%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%464W / 297L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$46
other 20% +$192
crypto 9% −$60
world 0% +$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.1% -14.2% 58% 58% -18.2%
≤30d 150 +0.0% -9.5% 68% 61% -8.8%
≤90d 494 +2.3% -7.4% 62% 58% -5.4%
all 761 +2.3% -7.5% 61% 56% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 56% -7.8%
10% -16.3% 46% -16.6%
15% -24.4% 34% -24.7%
20% -31.8% 24% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses464 / 297
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)761 / 762
History coverage117d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 761 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +41%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +47%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 +$1 +66%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 $0 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +49%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 +$2 +113%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +28%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06 Jun 19 $2 $0 +22%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$4 +172%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL 97¢ $3 13h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 70¢ $2 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $2 15h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 59¢ $2 18h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY 59¢ $2 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $2 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 36h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $2 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 41h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $3 41h
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $1 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 44h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $2 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $4 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 53¢ $2 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 64¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 16¢ $0 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1717 history records