Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D9 0xd935…5fe0 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$20
politics 34% −$14
sports 6% +$41
tech 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -15.4%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 83 -2.7% -11.9% 2% 1% -9.6%
all 114 +0.2% -9.4% 7% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$1 · ×13.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage120d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $287 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,183 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $256 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $294 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $318 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $334 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $319 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $300 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $875 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $310 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 16d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 16d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $33 17d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $33 17d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $51 17d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $297 28d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $231 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.01 · official $80.01 (match) · 338 history records