Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd936…17d6 weather 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$29 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$3
sports 2% −$10
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.4% -28.9% 27% 18% -16.4%
≤30d 11 -21.4% -28.9% 27% 18% -16.4%
≤90d 11 -21.4% -28.9% 27% 18% -16.4%
all 11 -21.4% -28.9% 27% 18% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 18% -16.4%
10% -35.7% 18% -24.4%
15% -41.9% 18% -31.7%
20% -47.6% 18% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $49 $58 +$10 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $102 −$7 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 −$36 -69%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $52 +$49 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 −$8 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$7 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$7 +162%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $50 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 98¢ $50 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 38¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 38¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $63 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 39¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $47 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 58¢ $43 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 46h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.38 · official $58.38 (match) · 33 history records