Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

D9 0xd938…885d sports 18 markets active 22h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$222 (-11%) realized −$232 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$112per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+9.8%	-0.7%	46%	46%	-13.2%
≤30d	17	+1.5%	-8.2%	41%	41%	-21.3%
≤90d	17	+1.5%	-8.2%	41%	41%	-21.3%
all	17	+1.5%	-8.2%	41%	41%	-21.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.2%	41%	-21.3%
10%	-16.9%	41%	-28.8%
15%	-25.0%	41%	-35.7%
20%	-32.3%	41%	-42.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late +16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$131 vs −$117 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$60

Realized−$232

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage7d

Avg bet$112

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$50	$60	+$10 (+21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$101	+$68	+67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$202	−$200	-99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$510	−$503	-99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$72	+$247	+344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$147	+$253	+172%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$41	−$40	-97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	+$20	+100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$203	+$175	+86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$62	−$60	-97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$51	−$4	-8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$183	−$179	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$87	+$93	+107%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	35¢	$19	21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	35¢	$81	22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	51¢	$101	22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$101	22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	17¢	$97	4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	53¢	$51	4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	53¢	$51	4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	65¢	$311	4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$72	5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$41	5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	63¢	$101	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	36¢	$147	5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	21¢	$41	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	10¢	$21	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$21	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	2¢	$10	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$51	7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	4¢	$47	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$203	7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$183	7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	41¢	$180	7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	19¢	$87	7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.33 · official $60.33 (match) · 37 history records