Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd938…0481 crypto 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,060 (+1%) realized +$1,087 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%228W / 429L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day281.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,923
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-60.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 542 -66.8% -70.0% 26% 25% -76.8%
≤30d 657 -55.8% -60.0% 35% 33% -66.4%
≤90d 657 -55.8% -60.0% 35% 33% -66.4%
all 657 -55.8% -60.0% 35% 33% -66.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover281.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.0% 33% -66.4%
10% ← realistic here -63.8% 18% -69.6%
15% -67.3% 7% -72.5%
20% -70.5% 1% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$294 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$1,087
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses228 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)657 / 311
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$243
Trades / day281.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Down 79¢ 64¢ $124 $101 −$23 (-18%)
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Down 81¢ 69¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 427 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4AM ET Jun 18 $786 −$786 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 3AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 8PM ET Jun 18 $349 −$349 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 7PM ET Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 2AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET Jun 18 $966 −$966 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3PM ET Jun 18 $357 −$357 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 7AM ET Jun 18 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11PM ET Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8PM ET Jun 18 $441 −$441 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 12AM ET Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7PM ET Jun 18 $990 −$990 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2AM ET Jun 18 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3PM ET Jun 18 $218 −$218 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 11AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3PM ET Jun 18 $662 −$662 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET Jun 18 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 12AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 7AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 9PM ET Jun 18 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET Jun 18 $275 −$275 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 11PM ET Jun 18 $454 −$454 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Jun 18 $954 −$954 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 4PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 10AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4AM ET Jun 18 $878 −$878 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12AM ET Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 3PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3PM ET Jun 18 $184 −$184 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1PM ET Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10PM ET Jun 18 $366 −$366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12AM ET Jun 18 $408 −$408 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11PM ET Jun 18 $458 −$458 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6PM ET Jun 18 $134 −$134 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5PM ET Jun 18 $255 −$255 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 5PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 1AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 2AM ET Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 4AM ET Jun 18 $266 −$266 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2AM ET Jun 18 $392 −$392 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 12AM ET Jun 18 $388 −$388 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 9PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9PM ET Jun 18 $850 −$850 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $13 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $14 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $17 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $49 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $73 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.45 · official $130.83 · 3500 history records