Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd93a…39dd
crypto · 964 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$99 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,019 · open −$373
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,677
Realized−$1,019
Unrealized−$373
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses698 / 324
Open positions47
Markets (closed)1022 / 964
History coverage23d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day119.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 47 History 1022 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$906
7 days−$875
14 days−$1,012
30 days−$1,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $250 $257 +$7 (+3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? No 76¢ 100¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $90 $91 +$0 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $89 $91 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 57¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No 90¢ 100¢ $60 $66 +$7 (+11%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+9%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 93¢ 27¢ $177 $51 −$127 (-71%)
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 74¢ 36¢ $82 $40 −$42 (-51%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 47¢ 57¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 21¢ 18¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 63¢ 77¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? No 68¢ 98¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 39¢ 10¢ $97 $26 −$71 (-73%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 45¢ 22¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 81¢ 74¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 14 $100 +$32 +32%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 14 $60 +$7 +11%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$23 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$19 -277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 14 $317 −$315 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$184
other 10% −$377
world 0% +$2
finance 0% +$3
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $28 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -33.5% -39.9% 44% 29% -27.2%
≤30d 1022 -8.6% -17.3% 68% 37% -15.0%
≤90d 1022 -8.6% -17.3% 68% 37% -15.0%
all 1022 -8.6% -17.3% 68% 37% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover119.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 37% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 18% -23.1%
15% -32.5% 8% -30.5%
20% -39.1% 4% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,676.64 · official $1,676.09 (match) · 3500 history records