Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd93d…27a0 sports 1334 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$612 (+3%) realized +$682 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%577W / 668L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$427est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$13
14 days+$67
30 days+$652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$332
other 21% +$236
world 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 22% -9.5%
≤30d 685 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 27% -4.3%
≤90d 1245 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 28% -6.9%
all 1245 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 28% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 28% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 26% -15.8%
15% -27.0% 24% -24.0%
20% -34.2% 22% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,312
Realized+$682
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses577 / 668
Est. fees paid−$427
Open positions94
Markets (closed)1245 / 1334
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 1245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $88 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $31 $53 +$22 (+72%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+25%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $12 $27 +$15 (+127%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+169%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-17%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 42¢ 48¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $23 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+11%)
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+214%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $37 $15 −$22 (-59%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) Otari Tanzilovi 40¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 48¢ 48¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 44¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 406 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $0 $0 +335%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: BHE (-1.5) vs Galorys (+1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$5 -117%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Guiomar Maristany Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reds win? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Mitteldeutscher BC vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -103%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Tora vs Bigetron MY by VIT (BO3) - MPL M Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Blues win? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $13 +$1 +10%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $27 −$1 -4%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $13 +$13 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $13 +$22 +172%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $29 +$27 +94%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $44 +$13 +30%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $31 −$18 -59%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $18 +$6 +34%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $27 +$31 +116%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $110 +$5 +5%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $14 +$6 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $32 +$9 +27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $27 −$14 -51%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $14 −$1 -9%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $13 +$18 +140%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $12 +$1 +4%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $42 −$22 -53%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $17 +$9 +50%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $28 +$9 +32%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $31 −$30 -99%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $14 +$6 +46%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $28 −$16 -54%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $31 −$15 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 28¢ $14 15m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $13 32m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 70¢ $14 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 44¢ $14 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 41¢ $14 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $13 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 41¢ $4 3h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 48¢ $8 3h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Besiktas 34¢ $5 3h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 48¢ $5 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 41¢ $4 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 41¢ $3 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 59¢ $14 5h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 57¢ $13 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $14 6h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 47¢ $13 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $14 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 9h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 10h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $25 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 11h
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina SELL Criollos de Caguas 63¢ $14 11h
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina BUY Criollos de Caguas 64¢ $14 11h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $14 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,312.22 · official $1,310.25 (match) · 3500 history records