Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd942…628e
weather · 1055 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$42 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$51 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses280 / 742
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1022 / 1055
History coverage80d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 15 History 1022 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$25
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? No 25¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$8 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? No 30¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+233%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? No 30¢ 54¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? No 30¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 28¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? No 30¢ 15¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? No 30¢ 15¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? No 28¢ 13¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? No 29¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 30¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? No 27¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? No 23¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? No 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? No 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? No 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on April 30? No 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? No 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14? No 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on May 15? No 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? No 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12? No 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 9? No 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? No 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? No 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$12 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$11 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$7 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$44
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 43m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 28¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 29¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 27¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 29¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 23¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 27¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 25¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 30¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 27¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? BUY No 29¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 22¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 17¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 29¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 26¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 29¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 29¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 21¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 28¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -0.4% -9.9% 26% 26% -3.5%
≤30d 433 +7.8% -2.5% 27% 27% -2.5%
≤90d 1022 +0.9% -8.7% 27% 27% -7.2%
all 1022 +0.9% -8.7% 27% 27% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 27% -7.2%
10% -17.5% 27% -16.1%
15% -25.4% 27% -24.2%
20% -32.8% 27% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.00 · official $36.00 (match) · 1679 history records